Week 27 · Term Three · One complex system: the Aral Sea
Model the Aral Sea as a bathtub of inflows and outflows, follow the chain of consequences after its rivers were diverted, sort the fixes that reach the cause from the ones that treat a symptom, debate the dam that saved half a sea, and defend a plan for the whole system.
Monday builds a stock-and-flow model. Tuesday traces the consequences nobody planned for. Wednesday finds the leverage points. Thursday debates a real dam with real winners and losers. Friday writes a systems defense that is honest about surprises.
25 minutes
Modeling · Stocks and flows
Model a system as a stock with inflows and outflows, and calculate how the stock changes when one flow changes.
Make
A flow model
Defense handoff: The flow model is filed. Tomorrow you follow what happened to the fish, the towns and the air.
25 minutes
Synthesis · One change, many consequences
Trace a chain of cause and effect through a system, and explain why decision-makers missed the consequences.
Make
A consequence chain
Defense handoff: The consequence chain is filed. Tomorrow you look for the levers that could actually help.
25 minutes
Systems thinking · Find the leverage point
Tell a fix that treats a symptom from one that changes the cause, and explain why both can matter.
Make
A lever map
Defense handoff: The lever map is filed. Tomorrow a real government has to choose which part of the sea to save.
25 minutes
Debate · A hard choice with winners and losers
Argue for a decision that helps some people and not others, weigh the tradeoffs openly, and defend it respectfully in a debate.
Make
A debate position
Defense handoff: The debate position is filed. Tomorrow you defend a whole system plan.
30 minutes
Writing · Defend a system plan
Write an argument that explains a complex system, defends one intervention, and names the uncertainty that remains.
Make
A systems defense
Defense handoff: The systems defense is filed. Your week's report is ready for the portfolio.
The defense uses only work entered here. It is a family record of this week’s work, not a grade, an attendance record, or proof of mastery.
