Week 11 · Term Two · One inspectable uncertainty model
Turn dusk-vole signs into numbers a steward can check: kinds of evidence, a local sample share, an honest buffer, a sized pause, and a public claim that does not say the species is saved.
Monday counts kinds of sign and leaves unread ground unread. Tuesday keeps 7 ÷ 12 attached to north plots. Wednesday draws an 80 m buffer and refuses a fog vertex. Thursday sizes a 14-night pause. Friday writes a claim a skeptical family can inspect.
20 minutes
Ecology · Signs, kinds, and unread ground
Count independent kinds of sign at each site, then refuse to treat a missing observation as a vanished species.
Make
A sign ledger
Habitat handoff: The north bench is the only two-kind lead. Sample size is still open — a night walk is not yet a share of the valley.
25 minutes
Statistics · Sample, share, and a small n
Divide signs by the plots you actually walked, then refuse to stretch a local share into a valley-wide percent or a head count.
Make
A sample card
Habitat handoff: The north share stays local. Range is still open — a sample card is not yet a map a steward can post.
25 minutes
Mapping · Points, error, and an honest buffer
Draw a buffer only around confirmed clustered points, and leave high-error or single marks off the habitat edge.
Make
A working range sketch
Habitat handoff: The north buffer is the only honest edge. Protection is still open — a sketch is not yet a rule a village can keep.
20 minutes
Argument · Protect without overclaiming
Match a protection action to the strongest evidence, and reject a rule that requires certainty the observations do not have.
Make
A refuge recommendation
Habitat handoff: The 14-night north pause is the working refuge. Public writing is still open — a recommendation is not yet a claim a family can inspect.
25 minutes
Argument · A claim families can inspect
Write a public protection claim that uses the week's evidence and states what the observations still cannot prove.
Make
A Habitat protection claim
Habitat handoff: The habitat protection claim is filed. Term Two now has one inspectable uncertainty model — not a claim that the species is saved.
The claim uses only work entered here. It does not infer a saved species, a den, a census, grades, mastery, attendance, or accreditation.
